Reaching the No. 1 overall seed was unrealistic for the Warriors by the end of February and became mathematically impossible one week ago. That belongs to the Phoenix Suns.
Climbing back into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference is mathematically possible but the chances are minuscule. The Memphis Grizzlies, barring catastrophic collapse, own that.
The Warriors are sitting on No. 3 but, as the losses keep coming, their hold is tenuous. They’re still in position to open the first round of the playoffs at home, but that could change. What’s 99-percent certain is that their opponent will be one of four teams.
Stay in the game with the latest updates on your beloved Bay Area and California sports teams! Sign up here for our All Access Daily newsletter.
The Dallas Mavericks are in fourth place in the West, one-and-a-half games behind Golden State. The Utah Jazz are fifth, two-and-a-half games back of the Warriors. The Denver Nuggets are sixth, trailing by three games.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are seventh, five games to the rear of the Warriors with six remaining. It’s improbable that Golden State will drop that far, but Minnesota is the only other team that can climb into the top six.
Here is a look at the pros and cons, from the Warriors' perspective -- assuming optimal health, a giant variable -- of each first-round possibility:
Dallas
Golden State Warriors
Pros: The Mavs have a young core with mostly limited playoff experience. They’re one of the NBA’s worst 3-point shooting teams, ranking 24th in percentage. They’re don’t climb the glass, ranking 27th in rebounding. They lack a legitimate rim protector; 7-foot-3 Boban Marjanovic is a part-timer. Only five teams have a worse assist-to-turnover ratio.
Cons: Luka Doncic is one of the 10 best players in the NBA and a huge challenge for any defense. Coach Jason Kidd, in his first season in Dallas, has pushed a usually bendable defense into the top 10. They’re comfortable playing slow, which tends to suit the postseason.
They’re also hot, going 17-6 over their last 24 games and 30-11 over their last 41.
Conclusion: Anything less than a fully healthy Warriors squad -- this includes Andre Iguodala -- is vulnerable against Luka. Fully healthy, a slight edge to the Warriors.
Utah
Pros: While the Warriors have been skidding, so have the Jazz, going 6-8 over their last 14 games and 17-20 over their last 37. What’s odd is that defense is more of an issue than offense. Rudy Gobert, a defensive animal in the regular season, gets abused in the playoffs.
The Warriors would embrace the opportunity to take advantage. Mike Conley is prone to injury. When Sixth Man Jordan Clarkson runs cold, Utah’s bench gets clobbered. Royce O’Neale, their top wing defender, rarely delivers on offense.
Cons: A healthy Mike Conley is a problem -- and an enormous problem if backcourt sidekick Donovan Mitchell is on his game. Bojan Bogdanović is the kind of streak shooter who could destroy the Warriors, but only if they don’t fix their broken defense.
Conclusion: The only chance Utah has of winning the series is if the Warriors provide an abundance of gifts.
Denver
Pros: Their defense can be cooked, burned beyond recognition if Michael Porter Jr. returns from injury and reenters the starting lineup. Assuming the return of Stephen Curry, the Warriors should have too much quality shooting. Denver’s offense can be forced into turnovers. Jamal Murray, less than a year clear of surgery to repair a torn ACL, will be rusty or unavailable.
RELATED: Iguodala sheds light on Warriors' issues
Cons: Nikola Jokić is the best center in the West, a dual-threat on offense. Make him a shooter and hope he misses or make him a passer and risk getting torched by a guy who sees all. Historically a tough home team, these Nuggets set a franchise record for road wins and swept both games at Chase Center. They’re deep, battle-tested, and led by a future Hall of Famer.
Conclusion: If Draymond Green is in top form, he’ll bother The Joker and give the Warriors the edge. Otherwise, this is a seven-gamer.
Minnesota
Pros: The T-wolves are new to the postseason, and it takes time to feel the difference in intensity and activity. Every possession will matter, and they will turn the ball over. D’Angelo Russell will have to guard somebody, as will Malik Beasley and Anthony Edwards. The Warriors have Andrew Wiggins, who tends to find his rarely used overdrive gear when facing his former team.
Cons: They’re big on the frontline and they’re playing excellent basketball since the All-Star break, posting a 12-5 record while ranking second in offensive rating, ninth in defensive rating, and fourth in net rating. Beware of Beasley, who is top-five in 3-point makes.
They’re playing without fear, which wasn’t always the case. Karl-Anthony Towns is capable of getting Golden State’s thin line of big men in foul trouble.
Conclusion: The Warriors have a core that knows the postseason terrain. They have a stronger mental game. There will be tense moments, but not enough for the upset.