Kornacki breaks down Warriors' playoff seeding scenarios

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Steve Kornacki’s advice for the Warriors to hang onto the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference playoff picture is simple: Win out.

The Warriors enter the final three games of the regular season Thursday a half game ahead of the Dallas Mavericks for the third spot in the West. At 50-29, the Warriors are a game up on the Mavericks in the loss column and the Mavericks have just two games remaining to catch Golden State.

But the situation can get a little complicated, explained Kornacki, NBC News’ National Political Correspondent.

“Right now, the Warriors are a game ahead of the Mavericks in the loss column, but if the Mavericks were able to get to a tie with the Warriors in the standings, the Mavericks have the tiebreaker,” Kornacki said. “So that game ahead in the loss column is key right now.”

The two teams would end the season with the same record if the Warriors lose any one of their three remaining games and the Mavericks win both of their games against the Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs. The Warriors, meanwhile, play the Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans over the weekend.

If the Mavericks manage to catch the Warriors, Golden State would drop to fourth. But that might not be a bad thing, according to Kornacki. The Denver Nuggets have a 91 percent chance of staying in the sixth seed, while the Utah Jazz have a 94 percent chance of keeping the fifth seed, according to Kornacki’s model.

The Warriors fared much better against the latter this season, winning three of four games against the Jazz while losing three of four games to the Nuggets. But, in another twist, dropping to fourth and playing the Jazz would mean most likely facing the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns in the second round instead of the Western Conference Finals.

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“On paper, maybe (the Jazz are) a better matchup for the Warriors,” Kornacki said. “Home court advantage either way, but of course the downside of moving to that four-five (matchup) is you know who would probably await in the second round there.”

Kornacki projects a slight statistical edge for the Warriors to remain in the third spot at 53 percent, though it’s way too close to 50-50 to declare it to be likely.

First, Kornacki said Golden State must take care of business against a “hapless” Lakers team on Thursday before focusing on the Spurs and Pelicans, two teams who have something to play for as they jostle for positioning in the Western Conference play-in tournament. 

While the Warriors will open up Game 1 at Chase Center no matter what, their opponent and road through the West will depend on how these final three games play out.

“Only a few games to go,” Kornacki said. “Very high stakes for the Warriors.” 

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