Raiders face 12 potential stadium outcomes next season

Last week we looked at the differences between the Bay Area cities of San Franicsco -- "The Best of Times" -- and Oakland -- "The Worst of Times" -- with regard to their professional sports arenas/stadiums.

[RELATED: A tale of two cities: San Francisco vs Oakland sports arenas]

This week, we look at what's next for each city...

SAN FRANCISCO
The only major question is when the Warriors can tip off in their new Mission Bay arena. You can bank on the announcement of an NBA All-Star game coming to San Francisco and their hoop palace a few years after it opens.

Super Bowl 50 will pour tens of millions of dollars into the city’s coffers with the majority of events for the game on Feb. 7 taking place in the Bay Area. There will be a number of temporary venues set up around town. Besides those pricey hotel rooms and expense account dinners at the toniest watering holes several hundred thousand football fans will take part in The NFL Experience at the Moscone Center and Super Bowl City in Justin Herman Plaza.

OAKLAND
The Warriors are leaving by 2018 or 2019. Sadly, there will never be another NBA team calling Oakland home during our lifetimes. Oracle Arena will continue to host concerts, family events, an occasional start up league and other one-off sports and entertainment events. Over time, Oracle could become the East Bay’s answer to the Cow Palace.

There is no one associated with the NFL sitting in a corner office at a desk with a secret envelope marked “STADIUM SOLUTION” on how the Raiders saga will play out. As of today “The Raiders of the Lost Park” have no approved actionable plan as to where they will be playing next season other than at O.co. The options have been discussed ad nauseum but just to add to the nauseam here’s a list of options (not listed in order of probability):

• Stay at O.co with the A’s waiting on the Raiders to blink so they can take over the entire Coliseum Complex in building out their new baseball only park
• Move to Levi’s Stadium as a tenant of the 49ers
• Move to Carson, California as a co-owner of a new stadium with the San Diego Chargers owned by the Spanos family. The Carson Stadium is penciling out at $1.7 billion with the Raiders in for 50 percent of the cost. If that is factual how are the Raiders able to finance $850 million in Carson while turning their backs on Oakland
• Move to Inglewood as a tenant of a new privately financed stadium to be built by St .Louis Rams owner Stan Kroenke, if he is allowed to move
• Move to San Antonio. Play in the Alamodome until a new stadium is built
• Move to St. Louis and play in the current stadium which would be vacated by the Rams relocation to Inglewood. Ultimately move into a new stadium which is being planned by St. Louis officials
• Build a new stadium on the Coliseum site or another location in the East Bay
• Move to London
• Move to Toronto
• Retrofit the O.co into a football-only “Al Davis Stadium” and stay in Oakland forever
• Play in the LA Coliseum or Rose Bowl until their LA based stadium is completed
• Play games at Cal or Stanford

So as you can see, the Raiders situation has a level of complexity similar to solving a Rubik’s Cube wearing a blindfold while suffering from vertigo. Add to all of this the behind-the-scenes politics in every one of the locations that are either trying to retain their home team or relocate it to a new home. In addition, you have the power of the NFL, which is going to do what is in the best interests of all its teams -- not just one or two. “Best interests” is defined by maximizing the monetary value of the Los Angeles market without getting bogged down in legal battles. Remember the league hasn’t been hindered one bit by not having a team there in 20 years.

The A’s are just waiting for the Raiders situation to resolve itself before they really get down to negotiating with Oakland officials. It seems logical that if the elected officials are forced to choose between the two teams they will go with the A’s.

As Michael Corleone has said, "It’s just business." And there are a number of reasons why...

• Games: 81 dates versus 10.
• A’s are more likely to self finance and build their own stadium. A's owners John Fisher and Lew Wolff face fewer financial hurdles than the Raiders. A baseball park is cheaper to build because it's smaller. It could be built for $600 million. Fisher is a billionaire who is far more wealthy than Davis. The A's have said repeatedly that they don't need public dollars for a new ballpark.
• Oakland and Alameda have no money to spend on a new football stadium or baseball park beyond the infrastructure upgrades. Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf deserves credit for repeatedly promising to not use public dollars to construct new sports facilities.
• A’s have the development capability to build out the Coliseum site for other purposes that will generate revenue similar to what the Giants are planning next to AT&T.
• The four years of Mayor Jean Quan’s attempts to create traction with the teams were exemplified by the “Kephart Kaper.” You might also remember the “Dubai Debacle” back in October of 2013. An investment group composed of Colony Capital LLC, a legitimate heavyweight developer, and Rashid Al Malik with ties to Dubai’s ruling Sheikh.
• Here is what Mayor Quan had to say about their Bay Investment Group. “I’m thrilled. They are very successful and have very deep pockets, so they can probably afford to do the project exactly how we would like it. I’d like to see a family oriented venue that includes a bowling alley, roller rink, shops, bars and a high end hotel.” That mirage quickly disappeared.

• MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has spoken positively on Oakland’s future with the A’s in a new ballpark.
• NFL commissioner Roger Goodell and stadium point man EVP Eric Grubman have not been glowing in their views on Oakland’s ability to get a new football stadium deal done. The Town Hall meeting held on October 29th to discuss the Raider’s future in Oakland just added to the ongoing frustration that fans of the Raider’s expressed at the session. Lots of talk little or no action.

POPPING A FEW DELUSIONAL BUBBLES
The Raiders and A’s could be sold to new owners that are committed to privately financed new venues in Oakland.

Not since the purchase of the San Diego Padres in August of 2012 has an MLB team changed hands. The easiest way to realize incredible asset appreciation in owning a professional sports franchise is to buy and hold.

John Fisher bought the A’s for $180 million and he can clearly see a one billion dollar future valuation from his office. The team is currently valued at $725 million by Forbes. The Raiders are worth $970 but with their potential to move that number could be closer to $2 billion. Carol Davis and her son Mark aren’t selling anytime soon. “Just Hold Baby!”

[RELATED: Forbes: A's valued at $725 million, 27th in MLB]

The Raiders have an overflowing fan base willing to gobble up seat licenses in LA. In actuality, the team had fewer than 20,000 full season ticket holders at the LA Coliseum when they left in 1994.

WHAT HAS BEEN DONE CAN BE DONE
The best possible outcome for Oakland is to retain both the Raiders and A’s. It would be a tragedy of epic sports proportions for these teams to join the list of former franchises such as the Larks, Oaks, Banshees, Invaders, Golden Seals, Aces, Breakers, Skates, Clippers and Stompers that all once proudly wore the name Oakland on their uniforms.

Back in April, Oakland officials approved a “specific plan” that mapped out the best possible uses for 800 acres of land surrounding the Coliseum. The City Council certified an environmental impact report for the whole area. With that plan and all the EIR approvals in place, the area is primed for restoration and growth.

With newfound cooperation of the team ownerships, the city, the county, NFL, JPA, and the corporate world, the area could become the East Bay analog to San Francisco’s China Basin-Miracle of Mission Bay, which was transformed with the addition of AT&T Park 15 years ago. Without a strategic, viable, actionable and financeable strategy bought into by all the above mentioned constituencies there may be nothing there for the Oakland Raiders.