It’s easy to see why the Sharks were so interested in John Tavares this summer.
The center entered Wednesday with 22 points, tied for eighth in the NHL and tied for second on the high-flying Toronto Maple Leafs. The Ontario native signed a seven-year, $77 million deal with his boyhood club on July 1, ending his time with the New York Islanders.
The Sharks were still in the mix to sign Tavares until the very end, according to general manager Doug Wilson. Wilson, coach Peter DeBoer, and owner Hasso Plattner headlined a San Jose contingent that met with Tavares and his agent in late June.
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On Thursday, the Sharks will face Tavares for the first time since, and get a glimpse at a player they pursued so strongly. With Tavares in town, let’s examine his offensive impact on the Leafs so far, and what he could have brought to the Sharks this season. All stats are courtesy of Corsica Hockey.
Tavares' five-on-five offense
568 NHL players skated for 100, five-on-five minutes this season as of Wednesday. Tavares scored goals at a higher, per-hour rate (1.85) than all but 14, and points (3.01) at a higher rate than all but eight.
Luck was on his side, too. The Leafs scored on 13.33 percent of their shots with Tavares on the ice through 18 games, and he scored on 18.6 percent of his. Tavares’ career averages in those categories entering the season were 8.67 percent and 11.32 percent, respectively.
San Jose Sharks
It’d be easy to chalk up Tavares’ five-on-five success so far to his circumstances. Through the first 18 games, he played all but 42:24 with winger Mitch Marner, whose primary-assist rate (3.31 per 60) was higher than anybody entering Wednesday. But Tavares was no passenger.
In the table below, you can see where Tavares ranked in generating shot attempts, unblocked attempts, shots, and expected goals as of Wednesday.
| Category | Stat | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| CF/60 | 14.58 | 117 |
| FF/60 | 12.5 | 56 |
| SF/60 | 9.95 | 45 |
| xGF/60 | 1.09 | 22 |
Those rates would rank fifth, seventh, fourth, and fifth, respectively, among Sharks forwards this season. San Jose shot more than just about anybody entering Wednesday, so Tavares would have fit right in with the team's five-on-five approach. Plus, they'd be even deeper down the middle, adding another elite center to a group that already has Logan Couture and Joe Thornton.
Tavares' power-play offense
It’s a little harder to parse Tavares’ power-play impact. Whereas the Leafs played 853:31 five-on-five entering Wednesday, according they spent about a tenth of that on the power play. Tavares, for his part, played just under 51 power-play minutes. Plus, Toronto already had one of the league’s best power plays over the previous two seasons, shooting and creating expected goals at a higher rate than any other team.
Still, the Leafs shot, and generated expected goals, at higher rates when Tavares was on the ice entering Wednesday. Individually, no player did so at a higher rate than him, either. The table below shows Tavares’ individual shooting rates on standard power plays, and where they rank league-wide.
| Category | Stat | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| CF/60 | 40.04 | 4 |
| FF/60 | 35.19 | 3 |
| SF/60 | 29.12 | 3 |
| xGF/60 | 4.22 | 5 |
Again, the sample size is incredibly small this early in the season, and those rates are likely to level off. But, Timo Meier (4.47 xGF/60) was the only Sharks player who was ahead of Tavares in any of those categories entering Wednesday.
The Sharks, like the Leafs, were one of the better teams in terms of generating shots and expected goals on the power play in the last two seasons. Therefore, it’s easy to envision him integrating in to San Jose’s power play well like he did in Toronto.
What could have been
The Sharks would be a better team if this roster also had Tavares. Of course, if they signed Tavares, they probably wouldn’t have had this roster.
For one, Sharks may not have acquired defenseman Erik Karlsson with Tavares’ salary on the books. The cap crunch would have been real, even if Joe Thornton left money on the table like Wilson said he was willing to do had Tavares signed.
Without Karlsson, are Chris Tierney and Dylan DeMelo still wearing teal? If Tierney is, do Antti Suomela or Rourke Chartier still make the team?
Those questions -- and just how early it is in the season -- make the biggest one the hardest to answer. Tavares’ impact on the Leafs after 18 games is clear, but what he would have meant for the Sharks is ultimately less so.
That doesn’t mean the hypothetical is any less interesting.